After iteratively nudging the door shut to any potential coalition deal involving New Zealand First, ACT Leader David Seymour has finally slammed the door shut, turned the key, fastened the deadbolt and latched the door chain.
There’s no room for Winston Peters in any Cabinet shared with David Seymour.
When asked by Stuff if he categorically rules out working with Peters after the election, Seymour replied, “Yeah, look, it’s impossible to see us sitting around the Cabinet table.”
If Labour, Greens and Māori Party are the ‘Coalition of Chaos’, ACT, National and NZ First are the ‘Alliance of Arseholes’.
The danger with Winston ruling out Labour was if ACT played the same trick and David Seymour played that card yesterday by checkmating National and ruling NZ First out of any role in any Right Wing Government.
This is a super smart play by ACT because National insiders are secretly wanting Winston in the mix as it only starts to dawn on National that ACT are no longer a protest vote and are an actual existential threat to National.
Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.
Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.
National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.
ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent – they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.
ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.
In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity politics dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.
Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.
ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.
In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.
Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.
Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.
Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.
Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.
Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.
A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.
We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.
This all adds up to an existential threat to National.
Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.
Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.
Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.
If voters on the Right sense Luxon can’t do it, there will be a late protest surge to ACT that will swell them beyond 15%, cannibalising enough National vote to rob them of a possible majority.
If National fail, Luxon will be removed and the internal fight over what National is will begin again, while ACT will start operating as the de facto opposition, (which they pretty much do already).
While National staggers to define itself in any post election loss, ACT will ruthlessly exploit their weakness and look to actually over take the National vote in 2026, which will strip National out of the main cities and leave them a South Island Party pretending to be from Masterton.
By 2029 National would be relegated to the highlands of the South Island where the cream rises and become a weaponised Grey Power without the teeth.
The Chinese Business Interests that backed National will be disappointed with their return on investment while the Billionaire class will pile into ACT’s class war agenda with the gleeful abandon of billionaires in submarines.
Even if National and ACT win a majority and form a Government, Seymour is so much smarter than Luxon, he will get all of ACTs agenda through, and then some!
In power ACT would take even more energy off National.
National’s only counter strike that will preserve the status quo and at least buy some time to consider their next move is to give Shane Jones an Epsom cup of tea in Northland.
Dilute ACT by including a shot of Winston.
Luxon flips and flops on a good day. The pressure of a campaign is a unique moment and while there are a thousand reasons to hate Labour, they are still competitive and that’s astounding.
Because a National/ACT Government is so extreme, the middle have decided to vote Labour regardless of how many times Kiri Allan shouted at useless Bureaucrats.
Sure, Kiri was hunted down by Police dogs, but let’s not pretend ACT and National won’t inadvertently start a race war with a referendum that will enforce a new Treaty on Māori eh?
Yes, Kiri’s actions were silly and frustrating, but a hard Right Government forcing a new Treaty on Māori while cutting the Ministry’s of Youth, Ethnic Affairs, Māori, Women, Pacifica AND the Human Rights Commission???
Hold the fuck up.
You have every right to be pissed at Labour and the Greens and the stupid shit they waste time on and incompetently can’t seem to manage (even with a fucking majority) B-U-T that doesn’t justify allowing Darth Vader and his Dancing Christian Stormtroopers from taking over the day care eh?
If National and ACT get in, ACT dominate Luxon and take votes off National and over take them in 2026.
If National and ACT don’t get in, ACT attack National openly and over take them in 2026.
Checkmating Luxon by ruling NZ First out is ACTs first move in taking out National.
The ‘Coalition of Chaos’ can at least work together, the ‘Alliance of Arseholes’ on the other hand are already trying to slash each others throats!
A Meeting of Mines
CL: “Hey champ, I’ve ordered us the soup broth. It’s delicious, do you like soup broth”?
DS: “Chris, I want to discuss core roles of the executive under any new ACT/National Government…”
CL: “I’ll get us the soup broth then, are you going to Taytay in Sydney? The kids want to go so I’ve hired a private jet. Hope it’s not a Tesla eh? (laughs loudly at own joke)
CL: “Chris Bishop is also going, he wanted to get a lift with us, but come on. He was a Tobacco lobbyist, he needs CEO money to ride with my crew (laughs loudly at own joke)
CL: “Do you like Taytay? I hate how everyone suddenly became a fan after her latest album, which is amazing, don’t get me wrong, but I was a fan from day one. All these newbies sucking up to her now, where was Chris Bishop when she released her first debut in 2006?
DS: “I believe he was 22”
CL: “Are you a Swiftie?”
CL: “I think we should have sponsored Taytay’s concert you know, it would win votes with the young female electorate Judith Collins tells me I need to win over. She’s become a great mate recently, hanging out a lot at my house when she turns up unannounced. She joked she was trying to catch me sleeping. I think it was a joke, you can never tell with Judith. Do you trust Judith?”
DS: “I think she’s a treacherous radioactive swamp witch who will always knife you in the back the first chance she gets, sorry, what did you say about the State subsidising a Taylor Swift concert?”
CL: “Yeah, I could get onstage and do a karaoke with her and my daughters will be like ‘Daaaaad’. I bet I can get on The Tictok with that! Are you on The Tictok?
CL: They say you will trick me into giving you everything ACT wants including a referendum that will start a race war, but you wouldn’t do that eh?”
DS: “I’ve specifically said I will make you do that”.
CL: “Yeah, but not really right”?
DS: “I’ve specifically said I will make you do that”.
CL: “Yes and I say things I have to walk back all the time too”.
DS: “I’ve specifically said I will make you do that, and have never walked it back. My last 3 press releases have been, “Why I will force this on Chris Luxon, How I will force this on Chris Luxon and When I will force this on Chris Luxon“.
CL: “You guys are so good at press releases, when I was at Air NZ we had a great press release person. Do you think your guys would run the press releases when we take over?
CL: “Oh here’s the soup. I love our weekly catch ups over lunch, it’s really helping me understand the man I’ll be working with”.
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