The next election is 2 months away on Saturday, 14 October 2023.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll highlights how stark the Labour/Green/Māori Party vs ACT/National/NZ First blocks have become…
…Labour has fallen below 30 and that is psychologically damaging for the Party and MPs.
The good news for Labour is that if you remove the don’t knows from the Guardian Poll, it has Labour at 30% and their latest internal Talbot Poll has them at 32%.
Labour have had a nightmare with wayward Ministers, but the debates are to come and finally releasing policy has given them a platform where 33% on election night is still possible.
I simply wouldn’t rule Labour out yet. The grim reality of a National/ACT Government propped up by NZ First anti-Vaxxers is a fucking nightmare scenario that utterly overrules any valid arguments against Vaccine Mandates, Co-governance or 3 Waters!
There are enough educated people in NZ to see that the Alliance off Arseholes would take this country backwards 100 years.
They are voting Labour no matter how many unaccountable unelected Wellington Bureaucrats Kiri Allan yelled at!
An ACT/National Government propped up by antivax NZ First is so bad it eclipses Labour’s bullshit WFF increase that doesn’t go to beneficiaries (meaning the poorest 200 000 children get fucking nothing from Chippy) and their meaningless GST off fruit and veggies when it should have been off all food!
The Greens have finally found their secret weapon, be slightly less cowardly and ball-less than Labour. The fascinating insight into the Polls are the huge movements in each one, we are seeing hundreds of thousands of voters changing direction and switching month to month, that shows a really fragmented and angry electorate and there ain’t no electorate more angry than disappointed Left wingers.
NZF has cut its deal with the Devil by signing up to the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate and I think it will provoke people to make a stance against NZ First on basic principle.
You can’t allow book burners and flat-earthers into Parliament Winston, this is 2023, not 1823!
People who believe there were nano robots in the vaccine shouldn’t be allowed inside Parliament, come on.
So far, National and ACT have put together the most radical right wing policy platform since Rogernomics and Ruthanasia by promising an uncosted overcrowded prison system ripe for riot, a referendum on the Treaty that will force Māori to accept a new version of the Treaty (which will spark a race war), the right to throw tenants onto the streets while slashing tens of thousands of jobs in the public service all so National can tell you how many hip operations have been completed in 6 months.
Seems like a pretty shitty trade off.
Being able to definitively record every hip operation while the rest of the entire State burns to the fucking ground doesn’t seem like much of a policy win to me.
Oh and Chris Luxon will send you a receipt of information that is publicly available and apparently generated by Chatbot AI which will cost fuckloads for no point.
I’m not even making that last bit up.
While the Right bark endlessly racist shit in a never ending orchestra of rank bigotry and blame games that only manufacture vengeance as social policy, the Left offer glimpses of a different New Zealand that are worth fighting for.
The Greens have finally dumped the woke alienating identity politics bullshit and are FINALLY talking about a wealth tax, building more homes and protecting renters from the obscene greed of the fucking Landlords! If they can just focus on the Broadchurch issues rather than alienating woke wank, they might be able to hold their ground and get 10%.
The Māori Party are generating an online world of connection and shared political strategies that is identity building and working for them, but they will lose everything if the price for their Supply and Confidence isn’t Broadchurch enough. There is a sweet spot that the Maori Party could gain that would turn the entire result on its head. I call it the MMP G spot. If the Maori Party win 5 electorates and get 4.9% Party vote they would generate an overhang that would make it impossible for National and ACT to form a majority.
Oh the lols on election night that would create.
Comrades we are 2 months out from the 2023 election, here is the current Election Battlefield 2023 as TDB sees it.
LABOUR: 33% on election night
They had one chance to take the election back by using the leak to surprise everyone.
They should have come out with GST off all Supermarket food, that would have been meaningful, this bullshit nothing with a small fart towards Working For Families is a gutless cowardly ball-less announcement that just makes you want Labour to fucking lose!
The new Working For Families increase DOESN’T EVEN INCLUDE BENEFICIARIES FOR FUCKS SAKE!
That’s right, the 200 000 poorest kids won’t get one cent of that money, did you realise that? That’s $73 a week those poorest kids are missing out on because this is only available for anyone NOT on a benefit.
What’s the point of Bread and Butter politics if no one can afford the Bread or butter?
The only silver lining here is that when the Books get opened next month and the full exposure of the NZ economy to China’s dramatic slowdown is made public, Labour’s GST and WFF crumbs will look like a 3 course meal.
Honestly, after this election no matter whoever wins, the Political Left needs to meet to see if a new political vehicle focused on Left Wing Economic values is what is needed here because between Labour’s cowardly incrementalism and the Greens alienating woke dogma, both Party’s have utterly failed us on the task of meaningful change while the Banks, Property Speculators and Billionaire class laugh all the way home.
NATIONAL: 33% on election night, 30% if these two keep wearing hats
After John Key’s jaw dropping acquiescence to China recently + the fact that the Blue Dragons (NZ-Chinese National supporters) are one of their most powerful factions inside National + Luxon’s comments on taking Chinese money to build our roads all = criticism that National is little more than a front for Chinese Business interests!
Jenny Shipley, Don Brash, Ruth Richardson and Chris Tremain are Director’s of the China Construction Bank, Judith Collins interaction with Chinese Officials to help her husbands Chinese Company, Oravida, to gain more Chinese money and Maurice Williamson’s love affair with Donghua Liu saw him become Liu’s personal handyman when doing up Liu’s batch and heavying the Police to drop domestic violence charges.
There was also the wee issue of a Chinese Spy inside the National Party as an MP.
National are the Political Party of Corporate Dairy Farmers and the Corporate Dairy Farmers who followed John Key’s ‘All our Cows in one Beijing paddock’ strategy’ have ended up becoming indebted to our Chinese Economic Overlords…
A deep cut in Fonterra’s milk price forecast will wipe $5 billion off the country’s GDP and most dairy farmers will make significant losses this year, according to a leading agri-economist.
It will also impede the ability of New Zealand’s exports to pay for imports and put a dent in the Government’s tax take.
Veteran rural economist Phil Journeaux said that, even before Friday’s sharp reduction of $1/kg of milksolids in the mid-point of Fonterra’s forecast price range for the current season – from $8/kg to $7/kg – modelling had shown that the downturn in global milk prices and soaring cost increases meant the average Waikato-Bay of Plenty farmer stood to make a loss of $54,000.
For Fonterra farmers that loss was offset by the Fonterra share dividend and a scheduled capital return from the company. But Friday’s announcement had turned the loss into $80,000, Journeaux said.
To break even under today’s economic pressures, the average dairy farmer needs $8/kg, according to modelling.
…while our Chinese Economic Overlords build their own mega Dairy Farms that will utterly undermine our dependent industry…
China’s dairy farming industry has transformed over the last 2 decades and today the main trend is big scale farming.
In 2019 the annual milk production in China was 32 billion kg and according to the ‘China Dairy Industry Statistics 2020’ the 25 largest farming companies of milk delivered 9,4 billion kg of the country’s production or contributed 29%. These farming companies had 1.7 million dairy cattle or on average nearly 68 thousand animals each.
…they will overtake us and undermine us and National with their Corporate Dairy mates have set us up on a conclusion course for geopolitical tensions.
Let’s be clear, we have no issue with the Chinese people or China, our problem is with their authoritarian régime however National seem more concerned with Chinese business interests than they are with our national interests!
National’s devotion for China is not safe and neither is the coming dairy death spiral.
We have put all our cows in one Beijing paddock and it is coming back to bite us in the arse!
No wonder John Key sings Xi’s praises whenever he can!
ACT: 15% + 2 Electorates
Line up Labour policy to Green policy and it’s 90% the same.
Labour and National vote together 70% of the time.
National and ACT policy are a billion light years away from each other.
ACT are no longer a snide political protest gesture from those whose rage leaves them impotent any longer they are a bonafide Right Wing Values Party and its double digit polling shows an electorate incandescent with vengeance and ready to lay a terrible reckoning upon us with a policy platform that is to the right of Caligula.
ACT won political ammunition from the woke cancel culture tactics of middle class identity activists who idiotically attempted to strangle free speech.
In doing so to calm the hysteria of the snowflake triggered, the woke signed the Left up to a culture war there was no fucking way we could win because free speech is sacrosanct you millennial clowns and the political backlash your attempts to censor it for identity dogma is as alienating as a cup of cold sick.
Because social media is so ubiquitous in our lives, all our timelines are a never ending algorithmically driven addiction of outrage olympics all holding their wounds up as legitimacy in a cacophony of intersectionist competition for social hierarchy.
ACT have benefited from this and because National stand for nothing more than Corporate Farmers, Bankers, Chinese Business interests, Corporate Farmers, Socially Conservative Christians, property speculators and corporate farmers, the rest of the right wing have walked away from the Grand old Tent that Don Brash and John Key held in place, and are now an existential threat to National in the immediate term, the medium term and the long term.
In fact, if National doesn’t do something very shortly, they will be dead in a decade.
Part of this is a demographic issue, there are more Gen Xers and Millennials than Boomers as a numerical voting block and National voters are getting older and older.
Part of this is a gentrification of Auckland suburbs away from Grumpy Christianity.
Part of it is rural farmers feeling ripped off by the big boys in the industry, part of it is their weird fetish with guns, part of it is the fury many Aucklanders feel at being sacrificed for the good of the country during the last lockdown.
Part of this is the culture wars the woke activists have chained us to.
Part of this is a leader like David Seymour who is magnificent on the campaign trail, so much so, he will eclipse Luxon.
A lot of it is males who voted Labour in 2020, but have been angered by the Green Party war on cis white males and have literally no idea how extreme ACT Party policy actually is.
We will know if ACT really are flexing in Tamaki where Brooke has every chance of beating local God Botherer and National Party stooge whatshisface. Internals suggest they are neck and neck in the electorate which should wake National out of their complacency.
This all adds up to an existential threat to National.
Losing the white working poor farming vote and the suburban soccer dad is an incredible double blow for National.
Internal polling suggests 1 in 5 rural voters are considering voting ACT and one in 3 Auckland voters are considering voting ACT.
Those are numbers that rob National of authority and leaves it a hollowed out movement.
This all matters because ACT intend to decimate the capacity of the Democratic State, not merely manage it.
David’s gleeful announcement that he will slash MBIE by 50% on top of dumping every climate change regulation on top of slashing 5 Ministries on top of dumping the Human Rights Commission is so fucking romper stomper, it’s difficult to visualise the pure savagery of ACT’s slash and burn madness without weeping.
This is an amputation of the State! MBIE employs the people who regulate the poorly policed laws!
22 000 Bosses were given the power to import migrant workers, of that number only 2 have had their exploitation scams ended and that’s because there is no State policing the current regulations we have!
We see this time and time and time again, State regulators who are supposedly policing the under regulated markets with barely enough staff to look into anything at all!
ACT slashing the regulators that police the vast wealth of those donations to ACT would be tragic if it weren’t so hilarious.
The naked cynicism of all of this, playing on your petty bigotry because you can’t understand the weather report any more because of all the bloody Māori is a political spite fuck that seems to enable the very corporations and Billionaire class you all aim to hate as Kiwis!
The greatest gift would be a National Party reliant on ACT and NZ First.
Oh I wouldn’t stop laughing until 2026.
3 years of watching David try and stab Winston in the face while Winston tries to slash David’s throat while Chris Luxon cries in the middle.
NZ deserves that.
GREENS: 10% (+ 2 electorates) on election night
Chippy’s bullshit Captains Call against Labour’s well thought out Wealth Tax has seen an exodus of voters from Labour to the Greens.
The Green focus on tax, better public services and environment is finally paying off as Labour manage to disappoint with every passing month.
Better late than never I suppose, the Greens just need to keep away from the alienating woke dogma and they can gain a 10% plus 2 electorates, Auckland Central and Wellington Central.
Might be competitive in Rongotai.
Can they implement any of their visions?
These people have all the offensive capacity of slow growing moss, sure they’ll burn your eyelids open while they make you watch them skin your pets if you misuse a pronoun, mispronounce Te Reo or suggest female comedians aren’t funny, but do negotiate something meaningful in the bear pit of politics?
Come on, let’s not be silly.
I think they won’t win Ōhāriu…
…the challenge for the Greens will be the return of Rosie Parker 3 weeks out from the election. If she is not denied entry and pulls another stunt at Albert Park which implodes into a violent riot, the Greens can’t be there and must actually put distance between them and anything that happens at it.
Māori Party – 3.9% + 4 electorates
The true demarcation of power in a liberal progressive democracy is between the 1% richest + their 9% enablers vs the 90% rest of us.
The richest protect their wealth from any new taxes and our social and physical infrastructure suffers.
The political project of the Right is to starve the State of revenue so there is nothing to redistribute in the first place.
The Māori Party identify this and have put together a Tax Policy that is as close to Socialism as we are going to get!
Te Pāti Māori’s tax policy
- $30,000 and under – 0% tax
- $30,001 – $60,000 – 15% tax
- $60,001 – $90,000 – 33% tax
- $90,001 – $180,000 – 39% tax
- $180,001 – $300,000 – 42% tax
- $300,001 and up – 48% tax
Currently the top tax rate – for earnings over $180,000 – is 39%.
The party would also:
- Remove GST from all kai and regulate the ability of supermarkets to hike prices
- Increase the company tax rate from 28% to 33%
- A net wealth tax
- A foreign companies tax
- A land banking tax
- A vacant house tax
The enormity of what the Māori Party are espousing here can not be ignored.
Labour is here to manage under regulated capitalism (and let the free market do the rest), the Greens are here to try and add the cost of pollution into the price (and let the free market do the rest) while the Māori Party are actually here to disrupt capitalism!
Normally the wealthy can rely on the fecklessness of the Greens or the cowardice of Labour to do nothing meaningful on Tax Policy, but John Tamihere is a heavy hitting working class boyver boy who is going to make Chippy tax the rich!
Pakeha have every reason to vote for Māori Party Tax Policy this election.
Now NZ First are nothing more than a anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom Party, they risk losing more voters than they can gain.
People who believe nano robots were in the vaccine are flat-earthers at a geography class.
I think this lurch to an anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom Party will bring the froth from the sub 5% catacombs, but for people with basic education it will feel like having sex with your cousin.
Sure it feels good, but deep down you know it’s wrong.
Which kinda sums up voting for NZ First really.
Voting for Winston’s rambunctious pronouncements against young people these days might feel good, but deep down you know it’s wrong and won’t solve any of the issues we face.
Now voters know that NZ First are actively chasing the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate, I think there will be genuine pull back.
Allowing the anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom electorate into Parliament is like allowing MAGA into the Republicans.
TOP – Ilam + list Coat tail
The Opportunities Party leader Raf Manji has a chance of winning Ilam now Gerry Brownlee has stood down. Sarah Pallett won the seat in 2020 during Labour’s red wave, but Manji was competitive against Gerry back in 2017. If Manji can steal the seat off Pallett and against a weak National newbie, TOP could enter Parliament AND bring in 2 MPs off the Party list.
Watch for the influence of the University vote.
TOP are talking about Housing and the political tax impasses that prevent Housing from being built, if they can convince the public that he can win in Ilam, then a vote for TOP isn’t wasted.
Sub 5% Feral Antivax God Squad vote – NOTHING!
The good news is that Brian’s current umbrella of Sue Grey’s antivaxxers and his Destiny Church QGod squad aren’t nearly enough to get over 5%. However if they added Matt King’s vanity project and the anti abortion New Conservatives, that cavalcade of political circus freaks could get over 5%.
Thankfully they are all toxic narcissists who couldn’t work together if their lives depended upon it, half of Matt King’s vanity project have quit, Leighton Barker lives so far up his own arse he’s named his political party after himself, and Antivax Grifter Liz Gunn is begging for a million bucks to start her own party up as well.
It’s just so glorious.
The rage of the impotent.
Keep fighting amongst yourselves feral Qanon dirt people.
SPECIALS + OVERSEAS VOTES:
I think you will have so many people voting who don’t normally vote that the specials will be huge on the day, this, along with the unpredictable overseas vote this election could throw any election night result out the window when the specials and overseas votes are counted.
Last election Greens did poorly in their usually high overseas support vote because Ardern’s global stardom eclipsed the Greens, this election however the frustration is directly at the Left so it’s difficult to know where it might go now.
My guess is that our diaspora are far more motivated to vote in 2023 than we have ever considered and their anger at being locked out will be sharp.
DEMOGRAPHICS & PARTICIPATION RATE:
This will be the first election in NZ history where Millennials and Gen Xers are a larger numerical voting block than Boomers, because lockdown impacted so many, I think people who normally sit voting out will have a real passion to make their voice heard, even if that voice is an anguished scream of fear and nonsense.
Ironically the more polarised the debate becomes, the more the middle want to sit out the election altogether so we could get greater participation from the radicalised.
The new community nerves grown into the non-vote Māori community because of vaccination outreach could provide the Māori Party with a unique election result.
Because the Political spectrum is so hung and the polarisation so extreme, nothing is being collectively done to solve the myriad of problems we are facing post-Covid from crime, to cost of living crisis, to climate change, to inequality and poverty. No big ideas and no real solutions to the challenges we are collectively facing as New Zealanders.
Our focus is on hating the person who offended us on social media. I just don’t think we comprehend what a distortion of reality Social Media generates and the new subjective rage it manufactures.
We will end up with a result both sides will refuse to accept if they lose.
Greens – They have finally discovered the secret to winning votes, be slightly less spineless than Labour!
Anti-science anti-Vaxx feral Voices for Freedom voters – They finally have their own Political Party in the form of NZ First that doesn’t embarrassingly ask you to not come to the family Christmas BBQ any more. These are the Kiwi who still wear their Ant-Vaxx stance like a badge of honour and who link you into Facebook posts about how Pfizer lied and why you will soon be dying because you took the vaccine. Refers to each other as ‘Pure Bloods’ a lot. These are voters who believe The Platform isn’t reactionary and racist enough for their day to day current affairs.
Banks, Property Speculators, the Rich – They have avoided any real regulation or wealth tax and have been promised vast powers to throw renters onto the streets. They are laughing all the way to their Banks.
Corporate Farmers – Despite global boiling, have managed to get away with having to do nothing to stop their emissions.
Chippy and Labour – You could call them Pat, give them a red van and they still couldn’t deliver.
Chris Luxon – Luxon could resuscitate a kitten live on TV and voters would still find a reason not to like him.
Rational Debate – The un-costed Prison policy of National, the un-costed roads policy of National and anything Labour promises alongside ACT promising to amputate anything not attached directly to the brain is giving us all the kind of debate you have with infants when bribing them for mouthfuls of food.
Environment – ACT and National have promised to rip up the tiny steps Labour just spent 6 years making.
Children in Poverty, Beneficiaries, Renters, the disabled – They will all get fucked over this election if ACT/National and NZ First win.
Never underestimate the ball-less, gutless, spineless Labour Party to ineffectively pursue incrementalism and blunt any true progress from ever happening.
Labour’s ball-less, gutless, spineless ineffectual incrementalism only inspires coma patients and children with no sense of pain.
What’s the point of Bread and Butter politics if no one can afford the fucking Bread or Butter?
Labour’s ball-less, gutless, spineless ineffectual incrementalism won’t look so bad when the books are opened next month and the full scale of China’s slowdown is evident on the economy, but by that point the Titanic has hit the iceberg and everyone’s already fighting for the life boats.
With the major parties now recording less than 65% of the vote, the next generation of user pays voters see themselves as consumers before citizens and their loyalty lasts as long as an app on their phone.
I call it ‘App solidarity’, you keep that app as long as it’s useful, the moment it stops being useful you dump it. This is the same way Gen X and millennials view politics, the moment it stops being useful, you dump iot.
Voters are so angry at Labour’s fecklessness despite an MMP majority and are sick of the same lies from National that they are protest voting anyone promising to smash the current gridlocked system.
The Governor General gives the Election to whatever Political Leader can assure Supply and Confidence, if no Party Leader can do that, we could be forced back to a snap-election.
David and Winston hate each other so much that they won’t concede anything to the other.
If National need ACT and NZ First (which they will) ACT and NZ First will sprint to the Cross Benches and refuse point blank to co-operate with each other or demand snap-election to force the issue!
If Labour, Greens and Māori Party are the ‘Coalition of Chaos’, ACT, National and NZ First are the ‘Alliance of Arseholes’ and their naked hatred towards each other will be glorious for 3 years of policy gridlock.
This is en election of protest votes and we want the system disrupted.
I think whatever block wins, it will do it with a one vote majority.
I blame Seven Sharp and The Project for us being this collectively stupid.
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