Labour dropping below 30% is a psychological kick in the guts for Labour, but after terrible months of self mutilating Minister after self mutilating Minister, Labour is pulling back.

If you remove the don’t knows from the most recent Guardian Poll, Labour does better…

…however the most recent internal Talbot Poll is even better for Labour…

…combine this with the fact Labour underpoll and National overpoll and that the Māori vote is always underrepresented (as is NZ First) and the outcomes are still too close to call.

When all is said said and done I think whatever faction wins it will do so by a one seat majority.

Despite capitulating on a wealth tax, Capital Gains Tax, cutting beneficiaries out of working for families, only taking GST off fruit and vegetables instead of taking it off all food – despite the lack of transformative change, Labour can still snatch mediocrity from the jaws of defeat.

TDB Recommends

Watch for Coat tailing, the threshold and overhang all playing a role in an MMP election this polarised.


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