Latest Talbot Mills poll is out and it shows a hung Parliament…
LABOUR – 33
NATIONAL – 36
ACT – 10
GREENS – 9
Māori Party – 4.1
NZF – 3.4
…looking at these numbers on top of the rest of the polling this year and it is becoming very apparent that the only way National can win is if they give Shane Jones an Epson cup of tea in Northland.
I think it is highly unlikely now that National can win the 2023 election.
If we look at John Key 180 days out from each of his elections, National was beating Labour by double digits, under Luxon, National are beating Labour by 3 points.
National over poll all the time and the number they need to win by has to be in double digits to ensure it can win, National haven’t achieved anything like that since Key left Office and it means a win this year is highly unlikely.
That doesn’t mean the Left can sleep walk to victory, they need to push policy that can actually solve the pain voters are feeling, but it does mean we have everything to fight for.
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