It’s all over for National.
Labour – 35.9
National – 35.3
ACT – 10.9
Green – 8.1
Māori Party – 3.5
NZF – 3
TOP – 2
180 days out from his elections with Labour, John Key was consistently double digits ahead of Labour.
180 days out from his election with Labour, Christopher Luxon has barely managed to beat Labour and when he does it’s a couple of points.
National always over poll heavily and to win on election night need a far larger margin than they are currently registering.
The fear of the ultra wealthy is a Labour Party forced to make serious concessions to the Left. Normally the wealthy can rely on the Left being too distracted by identity politics and internal bickering to do anything meaningful against their interests, but John Tamihere and the new Māori Party he is leading are disruptors of the worst type in that they can’t be bribed.
When they say they are going to tax the rich and remove GST off food, they mean it.
That is why the wealthy Right are so interested in supporting an Epsom cup of tea deal in Northland to help Shane Jones win and ensure NZF is represented if they fall short of 5%.
The only way National can win is with ACT and NZF.
This would blunt ACTs more crazy policy while denying the Left a true political victory.
Sources tell TDB there are already considerable resources from the National Party in Northland that are quietly being deployed to support Shane.
The closer the election looks, the more desperate each side will be to win.
The Prime Minister has fired a warning at smaller political parties, telling them to “be careful” with what bottom lines they make ahead of the general election or risk not being part of any governing arrangement at all.
The most important political lesson I’ve ever learned in NZ Politics is from the Laila Harre School of change.
Back when she was in Alliance, she had to force Labour to agree to maternity leave.
Can you remember and imagine that?
Having to force Labour to give maternity leave?
Laila teaches us that if we ever want the Labour Party to actually serve the people and not the vested interests of the Professional Managerial Class, then you need to smash Labour’s head against a wall, put a gun to their head and scream ‘do it’.
That’s the only way Labour will act in the interests of the people, if you force them to.
Look at the resistance Labour are digging in to stop any debate on Tax despite the IRD showing us NZ Capitalism is rigged!
There are 14 Billionaires in NZ + 3118 ultra-high net worth individuals, let’s start with them, then move onto the Banks, then the Property Speculators, the Climate Change polluters and big industry!
Labour’s acquiesce to the neoliberal economic straightjacket is the price they pay to remain in power because as we have seen they are beholden to the Professional Management Class and corporate lobbyists, the only way we get anything actually progressive out of them is if we force them. Labour’s greatest fear is a Bernie Sanders type of left wing populism, as food inflation continues to burn working people, the Māori Party’s demand to remove GST from food and to tax the rich is terrifying the interests of the ultra wealthy and that is why we are seeing the kind of insane donations difference between Labour and National/ACT.
ACT and National have promised to give Landlords the power to evict and build a new prison empire, they have declared class war and yet Labour are refusing to fight back.
The difference between the Māori Party and the Greens in making these demands is that John Tamihere is the kind of hard arse that can force that change through while the Greens couldn’t organise a BBQ at a vegan kink munch.
The real possibility we are facing this election is a Labour led minority Government with a supply and confidence agreement with the Māori Party, the price of which will be a range of policies that will have an immediate material impact on poor peoples pockets.
After those policies are passed in the first 100 days, the Māori Party will go to the cross benches and if their demands on policy are too extreme for Chippy, then he can go to National instead.
There won’t be a ‘Coalition of Chaos’ because Labour can work with National if the Māori Party are on the cross benches, but before that we could get the greatest upgrades to our State since Michael Savage.
I’ve argued constantly that the Greens need to Hui with the Māori Party to agree on a shared platform of policy ideas that they can negotiate with Labour as a united front but the Greens are too busy bickering amongst themselves to take the idea up.
For the last time, can the Left start working together? A National ACT Government will serve up the most extreme right wing Government we have seen since Lange, there is too much at stake to allow that to happen while also being the first chance since MMP to progress truly transformative policy.
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