National – 35

Labour – 33

ACT – 12

Greens – 10

NZ First – 3

Māori Party – 3

The rise of a hard right Government supporting Landlords, Banks, Property Speculators and the building of a prison empire rises like a spectre at the famine.

The Billionaire class who have poured millions into ACT and National will be furious. National are still barely ahead of Labour and ACTs race baiting keeps empowering the Maori Party.

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The election will be insanely close and we will either see an ACT/National block or a Labour/Green/Maori Party block that wins by 1 or 2.

Another possibility is a total fracturing of the MMP spectrum where NZF crosses the 5% or Shane wins Northland and TOP wins Ilam and brings in MPs off the Party list.

Comrades, the naked truth for the Left is that the only game in town is a Labour/Green minority Government with Supply and Confidence support from the Māori Party, and it will be the price of the Supply and Confidence support that gives the Left some actual wins and hope.

If the Maori Party are focused on legacy, they will make those bottom-lines for their Supply and Confidence support universal policies gains, not intrinsically Māori interests.

If they came out and said their bottom lines are:

  • GST off Food
  • Wealth Tax on Banks
  • New Supermarket chain following the Commerce Commissions recommendations and taking 30% of the market backed by Iwi to be food providers and build true food security.

those policies would ultimately help everyone who is poor alongside helping Māori.

Bottom-lines as broad as that in a cost of living crisis will see many working poor vote Maori Party.

Labour holds the centre, the Greens just hold and the Maori Party does the heavy lifting.

That is the only mathematical way the Left wins.


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